Alcoa Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2019 Results

Alcoa Corp. (NYSE: AA), a global leader in bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products, today announced third quarter 2019 results, as well as a multi-year portfolio review aimed at driving lower costs and sustainable profitability with refined strategic priorities.

“Our third quarter showed continued strong operational performance and stability across our aluminum value chain,” said President and Chief Executive Officer Roy Harvey. “Our Bauxite and Alumina segments reached new quarterly production records since our launch in 2016, and our aluminum business continued to rebound. While market and pricing challenges persisted through the quarter, our cash balance remained steady.”

Alcoa reported a net loss of $221 million, or $1.19 per share, for the third quarter 2019, compared with a net loss of $402 million, or $2.17 per share, in the second quarter of 2019.

The results include $139 million of special items, including $134 million in charges associated with the divestiture of the Avilés and La Coruña facilities in Spain, and a $37 million restructuring charge for severance costs related to implementing a new operating model, both as previously announced. The charges related to those two items were partially offset by a net benefit of $32 million in other special items.

The Company anticipates the majority of the restructuring costs associated with the new operating model will be paid in cash in the fourth quarter 2019 with the remainder in the first quarter 2020. The new operating model is expected to result in annual savings of approximately $60 million in operating costs beginning in the second quarter of 2020.

The new model, which goes into effect on November 1, 2019, will result in a leaner corporate structure, with operations more closely connected to leadership, through elimination of the Company’s business unit structure and consolidation of sales, procurement and other commercial capabilities at an enterprise level.

Excluding the impact of special items, third quarter 2019 adjusted net loss was $82 million, or $0.44 per share, compared with a second quarter 2019 adjusted net loss of $2 million, or $0.01 per share.

In the third quarter, Alcoa reported adjusted EBITDA excluding special items of $388 million, down $67 million from the prior quarter, primarily due to lower alumina pricing that was partially offset by higher alumina sales volume and lower production costs.

Alcoa reported third quarter revenue of $2.6 billion, down 5 percent sequentially due primarily to lower alumina prices.

Alcoa ended the quarter with cash on hand of $841 million and debt of $1.8 billion, for net debt of $965 million.

In the third quarter, cash from operations was $174 million. Cash used for financing and investing activities were $81 million and $76 million, respectively. Free cash flow was $87 million.

The Company reported approximately 30 days working capital, which is a decrease of one day both sequentially and year-over-year.

Alcoa Announces Portfolio Review

In addition to reporting quarterly results, Alcoa today announced a multi-year portfolio review to drive lower costs and sustainable profitability.

“Since our inception as a public company in 2016, we have relentlessly focused on strengthening our Company through portfolio and balance sheet actions,” Harvey said. “Just last month, we introduced a new operating model to create a leaner, more operator-centric organization, and today we are announcing a significant review of our portfolio that demonstrates a drive for continued improvement.”

Planned initiatives include:

• Over the next 12 to 18 months, Alcoa intends to pursue non-core asset sales expected to generate an estimated $500 million to $1 billion in net proceeds. Based on annualized 2019 year-to-date results, the Company estimates approximately $50 million to $100 million in reduced adjusted EBITDA due to such asset sales.
• Over the next five years, Alcoa plans to realign its operating portfolio, and has placed under review 1.5 million metric tons of smelting capacity and 4 million metric tons of alumina refining capacity. The review will consider opportunities for significant improvement, potential curtailments, closures or divestitures.

After the portfolio transformation, the Company expects to be the lowest emitter of carbon dioxide among all global aluminum companies, per ton of emissions in both smelting and refining, and aims to move its aluminum portfolio to a first quartile cost position. In addition, Alcoa anticipates that up to 85 percent of its smelting portfolio will be powered by renewable energy, building upon the Company’s existing sustainability profile.

Alcoa Refines Strategic Priorities

Shortly after launching as an independent Company in 2016, Alcoa introduced three strategic priorities: Reduce Complexity, Drive Returns and Strengthen the Balance Sheet. To reflect Alcoa’s increasing focus on becoming a stronger, more sustainable company, it has updated Strengthen the Balance Sheet to Advance Sustainably.

This priority encompasses both financial sustainability through balance sheet improvements and portfolio transformation, as well as achieving high economic, social and environmental standards to deliver value for Alcoa’s stockholders.

“We believe our updated strategic priority aligns well with increased demand for sustainably-sourced materials and provides a path towards meaningful differentiation that is both profitable and responsible,” explained Harvey. “As we look to the future, two trends in the aluminum industry are apparent. First, the inherently eco-friendly qualities of aluminum will continue to drive global demand growth. Second, our ability to produce responsibly-sourced aluminum will be valued by customers and the marketplace.”

Harvey continued: “We intend to win in our marketplace by strengthening our Company with a comprehensive view of sustainability and by building upon our strong capabilities and globally recognized reputation.”

Alcoa is the industry’s acknowledged leader in sustainability, including having the lowest carbon footprint of any refining system in the world and ranking as one of the best performers among major aluminum producers in controlling carbon dioxide emissions. Since its inception, Alcoa has been listed on the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices and in September of 2019 was named the Aluminum Industry Leader in the 2019 Dow Jones Sustainability Indices. Further demonstrating its commitment to sustainability, Alcoa has achieved Aluminium Stewardship Initiative certification at locations representing bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets.

2019 Outlook

The Company’s 2019 shipment outlook for Bauxite, Alumina and Aluminum remains unchanged from the prior full-year estimates. Total annual bauxite shipments are expected to range between 47.0 and 48.0 million dry metric tons. Total alumina shipments are projected between 13.6 and 13.7 million metric tons with anticipated operational improvements and higher year-on-year production. Aluminum shipments are expected to be between 2.8 and 2.9 million metric tons.

In the fourth quarter of 2019, Alcoa expects continued strong results in the Bauxite segment. In the Alumina segment, aside from market price impacts, the Company expects benefits from higher volumes and lower costs for raw materials and maintenance. In the Aluminum segment, the Company expects improvements primarily from lower alumina costs.

Market Update

For full-year 2019, Alcoa continues to project a global aluminum deficit, ranging between 800 thousand and 1.2 million metric tons, down slightly from the previous quarter’s estimate of a deficit between 1.0 million and 1.4 million metric tons.

Global aluminum demand for full-year 2019 is now estimated to be lower year-over-year, ranging between negative 0.6 percent and 0.4 percent, compared to the previous quarter’s full-year estimate of global demand growth between 1.25 percent and 2.25 percent. The change is driven by weakening macroeconomic conditions, trade tensions between the US and China, and contracting manufacturing activity, especially in the global automotive sector.

In the alumina market, Alcoa projects a global surplus for 2019, ranging between 1 million and 1.8 million metric tons, up from last quarter’s estimate of 500 thousand metric tons to 1.3 million metric tons. The change is driven by faster restarts and expansions in the world ex-China as well as by lower alumina demand due to disruptions at several aluminum smelters in China.

The third-party, seaborne bauxite market is expected to have a larger surplus in 2019 ranging between 15 million and 19 million metric tons, an increase from the previous quarter’s full-year estimate of 13 million to 17 million metric tons. The increase is due to higher supply from Guinea, which is partially offset by stronger demand from Chinese inland refineries.

Conference Call

Alcoa will hold its quarterly conference call at 5 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) on Wednesday, October 16, 2019, to present third quarter financial results and discuss the business and market conditions.

The call will be webcast via the Company’s homepage on www.alcoa.com. Presentation materials for the call will be available for viewing on the same website at approximately 4:15 p.m. EDT on October 16, 2019. Call information and related details are available under the “Investors” section of www.alcoa.com.

Dissemination of Company Information

Alcoa intends to make future announcements regarding company developments and financial performance through its website, www.alcoa.com.

About Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) is a global industry leader in bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products, and is built on a foundation of strong values and operating excellence dating back more than 130 years to the world-changing discovery that made aluminum an affordable and vital part of modern life. Since developing the aluminum industry, and throughout our history, our talented Alcoans have followed on with breakthrough innovations and best practices that have led to efficiency, safety, sustainability, and stronger communities wherever we operate.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains statements that relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include those containing such words as “anticipates,” “believes,” “could,” “estimates,” “expects,” “forecasts,” “goal,” “intends,” “may,” “outlook,” “plans,” “projects,” “seeks,” “sees,” “should,” “targets,” “will,” “would,” or other words of similar meaning. All statements by Alcoa Corp. that reflect expectations, assumptions or projections about the future, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, forecasts concerning global demand growth for bauxite, alumina, and aluminum, and supply/demand balances; statements, projections or forecasts of future or targeted financial results or operating performance; statements about strategies, outlook, and business and financial prospects; and statements about return of capital. These statements reflect beliefs and assumptions that are based on Alcoa Corp.’s perception of historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors that management believes are appropriate in the circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. Although Alcoa Corp. believes that the expectations reflected in any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that these expectations will be attained and it is possible that actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements due to a variety of risks and uncertainties. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: (a) material adverse changes in aluminum industry conditions, including global supply and demand conditions and fluctuations in London Metal Exchange-based prices and premiums, as applicable, for primary aluminum and other products, and fluctuations in indexed-based and spot prices for alumina; (b) deterioration in global economic and financial market conditions generally and which may also affect Alcoa Corp.’s ability to obtain credit or financing upon acceptable terms; (c) unfavorable changes in the markets served by Alcoa Corp.; (d) the impact of changes in foreign currency exchange and tax rates on costs and results; (e) increases in energy costs or uncertainty of energy supply; (f) declines in the discount rates used to measure pension liabilities or lower-than-expected investment returns on pension assets, or unfavorable changes in laws or regulations that govern pension plan funding; (g) the inability to achieve improvement in profitability and margins, cost savings, cash generation, revenue growth, fiscal discipline, or strengthening of competitiveness and operations anticipated from operational and productivity improvements, cash sustainability, technology advancements, and other initiatives; (h) the inability to realize expected benefits, in each case as planned and by targeted completion dates, from acquisitions, divestitures, facility closures, curtailments, restarts, expansions, or joint ventures; (i) political, economic, trade, legal, and regulatory risks in the countries in which Alcoa Corp. operates or sells products; (j) labor disputes and/or and work stoppages; (k) the outcome of contingencies, including legal proceedings, government or regulatory investigations, and environmental remediation; (l) the impact of cyberattacks and potential information technology or data security breaches; and (m) the other risk factors discussed in Item 1A of Alcoa Corp.’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2018 and other reports filed by Alcoa Corp. with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Alcoa Corp. disclaims any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether in response to new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Market projections are subject to the risks described above and other risks in the market.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Some of the information included in this release is derived from Alcoa Corp.’s consolidated financial information but is not presented in Alcoa Corp.’s financial statements prepared in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP). Certain of these data are considered “non-GAAP financial measures” under SEC regulations. Alcoa Corp. believes that the presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is useful to investors because such measures provide both additional information about the operating performance of Alcoa Corp. and insight on the ability of Alcoa Corp. to meet its financial obligations by adjusting the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure for the impact of, among others, “special items” as defined by the Company, non-cash items in nature, and/or nonoperating expense or income items. The presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is not intended to be a substitute for, and should not be considered in isolation from, the financial measures reported in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and management’s rationale for the use of the non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the schedules to this release.

This release includes a range of estimated reduced adjusted EBITDA for the Company related to potential future asset sales. Alcoa Corp. has not provided a reconciliation of this forward-looking non-GAAP financial measure to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure for the following reasons. The Company’s financial results are heavily dependent on market-driven factors, such as LME-based prices for aluminum, index- and spot-based prices for alumina, and foreign currency exchange rates. As such, the Company may experience significant volatility on a daily basis related to its estimated adjusted EBITDA. Management applies estimated sensitivities, such as those relating to aluminum and alumina prices and foreign currency exchange rates, to the components that comprise adjusted EBITDA. However, a similar analysis cannot be performed relating to the components necessary to reconcile adjusted EBITDA to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure without unreasonable effort due to the additional variability and complexity associated with forecasting such items. Consequently, management believes such reconciliation would imply a degree of precision that would be confusing and/or potentially misleading to investors.