Legend International Holdings Inc Announces Positive and Robust Results from Wengfu′s Feasibility Study for Legend′s Paradise Phosphate Project
Legend International Holdings, Inc (OTCBB:LGDI) is pleased to
announce positive and robust results from the recently completed
feasibility study for Legend′s Paradise Phosphate Project conducted by
Wengfu Group Ltd of China ('Wengfu?). The results of the feasibility
study have confirmed that development of the project is technically and
economically viable. The financial model is robust across a number of
market scenarios and Legend management believe that studies currently
being conducted on project expansion will add significant further value.
For a full detailed summary of the results of the feasibility study
please see the Form 8-K release available on Legend′s website www.lgdi.net
Highlights include:
- Paradise Phosphate Project Feasibility Study completed on schedule
confirming the technical and financial viability of the base case
development scenario - US$11 billion total revenue over 30 years
- US$2.6 billion total free cash flow after tax and capital
- Pre-tax IRR of 25.5%
- Pre-tax NPVof US$1.5 billion.
- Average annual EBITDA of US$151 million
- Average annual free cash flow after tax of US$113 million
- US$210 DAP cash operating margin for 600ktpa production
- Significant revenue boost of US$28.55 million per year from sale of
aluminium fluoride by-product - Total capital cost of US$808.16 million (includes working capital)
- Capital payback period of 5 years
Wengfu is the one of the largest phosphate fertilizer producers in
China, and has developed two phosphate mines in Guizhou Province and
beneficiation, fertilizer and chemical plants in Guizhou, Gansu and
Sichuan Provinces, China. Wengfu produces over 2.5 million tonnes of
finished fertilizer products. Wengfu also has a large research and
development arm which has enabled Wengfu to produce many speciality
phosphate chemical products. Wengfu has a large global network in the
phosphate fertilizer industry and exports fertilizer to over twenty
countries worldwide including Australia and New Zealand. Wengfu is also
currently contracted to provide engineering, procurement and
construction services for the large phosphate fertilizer Ma′aden
Beneficiation Project in Saudi Arabia. Wengfu are recognised
internationally as experts in the phosphate fertilizer and chemical
industry.
The feasibility study, as summarized in Table 1 below, outlines the base
case for the project. A Feasibility Expansion Study on increased
production scenarios is due for completion by the end of quarter 3,
2010. The financial summary below is based on a 100% project basis
(ungeared).
SUMMARY OF THE PARADISE FEASIBILITY STUDY RESULTS
Summary | ||
Mineral Resource1 | 81Mt @ 18.1% P2O5 | |
Mine Life | +30 yrs | |
Total DAP Production - 30 yrs | 18Mt | |
Total DAP/MAP/AlF3 Revenue Generated (30 yrs) | US$11,046M | |
Total Free Cash Flow (after tax and capital, 30 yrs) | US$2,647M | |
Annual Production (DAP/MAP/AlF3) | 600Kt MAP/DAP, 15Kt AlF3 | |
Average Annual EBITDA | US$151M | |
Average Annual Free Cash after tax | US$113M | |
Development Capital | US$808M | |
*Capital Payback | 5 yrs | |
Life of Mine Average DAP Price (fob Townsville) | US$531/t | |
DAP Cash Operating Cost (fob Townsville) | US$321.3/t | |
DAP Cash Operating Margin | US$209.7/t | |
*Pre Tax IRR | 25.5% | |
*Pre Tax NPV8.0% | US$1,527M | |
*After Tax IRR | 20.1% | |
*After Tax NPV8.0% | US$967M |
* DAP selling price and raw material input costs adjusted for inflation
Table 1. Economic Summary of Paradise Feasibility Study Results
The above summary of the Paradise feasibility study economics is most
sensitive to the estimated long term DAP price. According to the
financial model a 5% change in the estimated DAP price creates a 1.9%
change in the after tax IRR (addition/subtraction of 1.9% to/from IRR of
20.1%) and an 18.7% change in the after tax NPV8.0%
(addition/subtraction of US$180.6M to/from US$967M). However, these
sensitivities assume that a change in the DAP price is unrelated to any
changes in input raw materials i.e. it is reflecting a change in the
value of phosphate or P2O5 only. In reality,
changes in DAP price may be reflecting changes in sulfur and ammonia raw
material inputs, and will therefore not affect the IRR or NPV in the
exact order of magnitude stated above. Therefore any downside may not be
as severe for lower DAP prices.
DAP prices on average are expected to remain close to current levels and
a 10 year long term average of US$445/t fob US Gulf (Tampa, FL) has been
used in this feasibility study. This estimate is within 2% of British
Sulphur Consultants 10 year forecast average (BSC′s Phosphoric Acid,
DAP, MAP & TSP Ten Year Outlook 2009). From 2019 onwards phosphate
prices are estimated to continue rising due to strong demand from a
growing population and depleting worldwide resources. Legend has used
the 10 year average price as its base case scenario and adjusted it to
represent an import parity price to report fob Townsville prices.
Legends fob Townsville price for DAP is therefore the equivalent of the
fob US Gulf price plus the forecast freight rate from Tampa to
Townsville. The 10 year average forecast shipping rate is US$86/t
(provided by Braemar Shipping Services Plc) which, when added to the 10
year average DAP fob Tampa price, gives a 10 year average fob Townsville
price of US$531/tonne on import parity pricing.
Legend′s cash margin for producing 1 tonne of DAP is currently estimated
at US$209.7 using the estimated cash operating costs of US$321.3/t and
the long term estimated average of US$531/t fob Townsville. British
Sulphur Consultants (a division of the CRU Group) in its Phosphoric
Acid, DAP, MAP & TSP Ten Year Outlook 2009 estimated that the cash
margin required to justify a new phosphate chemical complex with an
output of 736 ktpa DAP with an estimated capital cost of around US$750
million would be about US$180 per tonne of DAP. Legends estimated cash
margin of $209.7 per tonne of DAP is well above CRU′s estimated margin
needed to justify a new phosphate fertilizer complex.
The capital cost estimated by CRU is for a chemical complex that
consists of a 736 ktpa DAP plant, a 350 ktpa phosphoric acid plant, and
a captive 1,300 ktpa phosphate rock mine with beneficiation plant.
Legend′s capital cost estimate in the feasibility study is for a 600
ktpa DAP plant, 300 ktpa phosphoric acid plant and a captive 1,000 ktpa
phosphate rock mine. Once differences in size are accounted for and
costs for the AlF3 plant, the transport infrastructure and
the working capital are deducted from Legends estimate, the two
estimates are comparable and within 10%.
The Paradise Phosphate Project will provide significant employment
opportunities to the local Mt Isa region. The total estimated number of
jobs directly and indirectly created by the project is approximately
2850 for the base case scenario and up to 6000 for the expanded
scenarios.
FINANCE
Wengfu will finalize their level of equity involvement and facilitation
of financing after completion of the Feasibility Expansion Study due by
the end of quarter 3, 2010. Legend has also been approached by a number
of other international fertilizer industry corporations to discuss
equity investment and financing assistance for development of the
project. These discussions will be progressed aggressively over the next
few months to ensure that project planning and execution remains on
schedule.
FULL REPORT
A full detailed summary is available on Legends website (www.lgdi.net)
outlining the following areas of the feasibility study:-
PROJECT OVERVIEW
MINERAL RESOURCES
MINING
PROCESSING & LOGISTICS
INFRASTRUCTURE
EMPLOYMENT
CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE
OPERATING COST ESTIMATE
MARKETING
ENVIRONMENT & TENURE
IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE
BROADCAST CONFERENCE CALL
Legend will be holding a broadcast conference call on Monday, July 26,
2010 at 10am Eastern Time to present the details of the Feasibility
Study results. Please dial in with the details provided below:-
Dial-in: +1 800 860-2442 (US Toll-Free)
+1 412 858-4600
(International)
Ask for the Legend International Call
* * * * *
Replay, available for 7 days
+1 877 344-7529 (US Toll-Free)
+1
412 317-0088 (International)
Code: 442864 #
* * * * *
1 Mineral resources ('resources?) have been calculated as at
May 10, 2010 in accordance with JORC Code (2004) guidelines. For United
States reporting purposes, Industry Guide 7, (under the Securities and
Exchange Act of 1934), as interpreted by Staff of the SEC, applies
different standards in order to classify mineralization as a reserve.
Accordingly, for U.S. reporting purposes, Paradise North is classified
as non reserve mineralized material. In addition, while the terms
'measured?, 'indicated? and 'inferred? mineral resources are required
pursuant to the JORC Code, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
does not recognize such terms. JORC standards differ significantly from
the requirements of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and
mineral resource information contained herein is not comparable to
similar information regarding mineral reserves disclosed in accordance
with the requirements of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
U.S. investors should understand that 'inferred? mineral resources have
a great amount of uncertainty as to their existence and great
uncertainty as to their economic and legal feasibility. In addition,
U.S. investors are cautioned not to assume that any part or all of
Legend′s mineral resources constitute or will be converted into reserves.
Forward-Looking Statements
Forward-looking statements in this press release are made pursuant to
the 'safe harbour? provisions of the Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995. Investors are cautioned that such forward-looking
statements involve risks and uncertainties including, without
limitation, the risks of exploration and development stage projects,
risks associated with environmental and other regulatory matters, mining
risks and competition and the volatility of mineral prices. Actual
results and timetables could vary significantly. Additional information
about these and other factors that could affect the Company′s business
is set forth in the Company′s fiscal 2009 Annual Report on Form 10-K and
other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Legend International Holdings, Inc.
Mr. Joseph Gutnick, +011 613
8532 2866
Chief Executive Officer
Fax: +011 613 8532 2805
josephg@axisc.com.au
or
General
Manager Business
New York Office
Tel: (212) 223 0018
Fax:
(212) 223 1169
legendinfo@axisc.com.au