MEG Energy announces third quarter 2023 financial and operating results

CALGARY, Nov. 6, 2023 - MEG Energy Corp. (TSX: MEG) ("MEG" or the "Corporation") reported its third quarter 2023 operational and financial results.

"Increased bitumen production and strong bitumen realizations resulted in over $400 million of free cash flow in the quarter allowing us to advance our debt reduction and return of capital strategy while continuing to deliver safe and reliable operations," said Derek Evans Chief Executive Officer. "At current oil prices we expect to reach our US$600 million net debt target in mid-2024, at which point our return of capital to shareholders will rise from 50% to 100% of free cash flow, and at the same time, we will be well-positioned to sanction highly economic projects for modest production growth over the next few years. MEG's financial turnaround and current business strength has been governed by the Board of Directors led over the last few years by Ian Bruce as Chair. His business insight, support and kindness will be greatly missed."

Third quarter 2023 highlights include:

• Funds flow from operating activities ("FFO") and adjusted funds flow ("AFF") of $492 million, or $1.71 per share. Year-to-date FFO and AFF totaled $1,118 million and $1,044 million, or $3.85 and $3.60 per share, respectively;
• Bitumen production of 103,726 barrels per day ("bbls/d") at a 2.28 steam-oil ratio ("SOR") reflecting the Corporation's continued focus on short-cycle redevelopment programs, enhanced completion designs and optimized well spacing. Year-to-date bitumen production averaged 98,835 bbls/d;
• Bitumen realization after net transportation and storage expense of $84.75 per barrel reflecting the Corporation's strategic market access together with supportive supply/demand fundamentals for its Access Western Blend ("AWB") product. Bitumen realization after net transportation and storage expense in the first nine months of 2023 was $62.04 per barrel;
• Free cash flow ("FCF") of $409 million after $83 million of capital expenditures. Year-to-date FCF totaled $699 million after $345 million of capital expenditures;
• Debt repayment of US$68 million (approximately $92 million) during the third quarter of 2023 and US$194 million (approximately $263 million) year-to-date. Net debt declined to US$885 million (approximately $1.2 billion) at the end of the third quarter of 2023;
• MEG returned $58 million to shareholders during the third quarter of 2023 through the buyback and cancellation of 2.3 million shares at a weighted average price of $25.40 per share. Year-to-date buybacks totaled 10.3 million shares, returning $227 million to shareholders;
• Operating expenses net of power revenue of $5.11 per barrel. Power revenue more than offset energy operating costs, resulting in a recovery of energy operating costs net of power revenue of $0.04 per barrel and non-energy operating costs of $5.15 per barrel. Year-to-date operating expenses net of power revenue were $5.91 per barrel, including non-energy operating costs of $5.16 per barrel and $0.75 per barrel of energy operating costs net of power revenue;
• The Corporation published its third ESG report in September 2023, which discusses its foundational commitments of Business Model Resilience and Governance and the Corporation's priority ESG topics: Health and Safety; Climate Change and GHG Emissions; Water Management; Energy Security; Energy Affordability; and Indigenous Relations; and
• On September 13, 2023, Fitch Ratings raised the Corporation's long-term issuer credit rating to BB- with a stable outlook from B+ and affirmed the issue-level rating on the Corporation's senior unsecured notes at BB-.

Financial Results

AFF and FFO in the third quarter of 2023 decreased to $492 million from $496 million and $501 million, respectively, in the comparative 2022 period. Increased sales volumes due to higher bitumen production largely offset a 6% decline in cash operating netback, to $58.64 per barrel, reflecting a higher bitumen realization after net transportation and storage expense more than offset by increased post-payout royalties.

Third quarter 2023 bitumen realization after net transportation and storage expense rose to $84.75 from $74.75 per barrel in the same period of 2022. A lower WTI oil price was more than offset by narrower WTI:AWB differentials and a weaker Canadian dollar. In addition, diluent expense fell from $9.63 to $0.06 per barrel reflecting a lower purchase cost of diluent relative to WTI, narrower WTI:AWB differentials and use of diluent linefill recorded at a lower historical accounting value. Diluent costs were fully recovered through blend sales in the third quarter of 2023 compared to a 79% recovery in the same 2022 period.

The Corporation's Christina Lake operation reached post-payout status under the Oil Sands Royalty Regulation in the second quarter of 2023. The resulting royalty rate increase raised third quarter 2023 royalties to $181 million from $66 million in the same period of 2022.

The Corporation sold 73% and 66% of blend sales volumes in the USGC market during the third quarters of 2023 and 2022, respectively. Average heavy oil apportionment on the Enbridge mainline system was 1% and 3% in those periods.

Third quarter 2023 FCF was $409 million, compared to $418 million in the same period of 2022, reflecting lower AFF and an increase in capital spending.

Capital expenditures rose to $83 million in the third quarter of 2023 from $78 million in the same quarter of 2022 due to increased 2023 scope, inflation and timing of field development and maintenance activities.

Net earnings increased to $249 million in the third quarter of 2023 from $156 million in the comparative 2022 period, mainly reflecting a smaller unrealized foreign exchange loss on long-term debt.

Operating Results

Bitumen production rose approximately 2% in the third quarter of 2023 to 103,726 bbls/d, from 101,983 bbls/d in the same period of 2022. Higher 2023 production was delivered at a 2.28 SOR, a 5% reduction from 2.39 in the third quarter of 2022. This reflects the Corporation's continued focus on short-cycle redevelopment programs, enhanced completion designs, optimized well spacing and targeted facility enhancements.

Third quarter 2023 non?energy operating costs increased to $5.15 per barrel of bitumen sales from $4.49 per barrel during the same period of 2022, primarily reflecting the timing of maintenance activities and inflationary pressures on the cost of services, treating chemicals and staff costs.

Power revenue exceeded energy operating costs in the third quarter of 2023 generating a $0.04 per barrel net recovery relative to a $0.96 per barrel expense in the comparable 2022 period. Weaker natural gas prices reduced energy operating costs more than the offsetting impact of a lower realized price on power revenue. Power revenue offset 101% and 84% of energy operating costs in the third quarters of 2023 and 2022, respectively.

Debt Repurchases and Share Buybacks

The $409 million of third quarter 2023 FCF was used to fund working capital requirements, repurchase debt and buy back shares. The Corporation repurchased US$68 million (approximately $92 million) of outstanding 7.125% senior unsecured notes at a weighted average price of 101.7%. Share buybacks totaled $58 million through the repurchase and cancellation of 2.3 million shares at a weighted average price of $25.40 per share. Year-to-date the Corporation repurchased US$194 million (approximately $263 million) of outstanding 7.125% senior unsecured notes at a weighted average price of 102.1%, and share buybacks totaled $227.4 million through the repurchase and cancellation of 10.3 million shares at a weighted average price of $22.07 per share.

The Corporation remains focused on its strategy of debt reduction and returning capital to shareholders. From April 1, 2022 through November 3, 2023, 33.1 million shares have been repurchased and cancelled returning $668 million to shareholders at a weighted average price of $20.16 per share. Debt repurchases have totaled US$853 million (approximately $1.1 billion) over that same period.

Capital Allocation Strategy

Approximately 50% of 2023 FCF is being allocated to debt reduction with the remainder applied to share buybacks. 100% of FCF will be returned to shareholders when the Corporation reaches its US$600 million net debt target, which is expected to occur mid-2024 at current oil prices. The Corporation exited the third quarter of 2023 with net debt of US$885 million.

Sustainability and Pathways Update

The Corporation published its third ESG report in September 2023, which discusses its foundational commitments of Business Model Resilience and Governance and the Corporation's priority ESG topics: Health and Safety; Climate Change and GHG Emissions; Water Management; Energy Security; Energy Affordability; and Indigenous Relations. The ESG report illustrates progress in several areas in 2022 and early 2023, including the establishment of a new mid-term absolute GHG emissions reduction target of 0.63 megatonnes per annum by year-end 2030 (an approximately 30% reduction from 2019 levels); $72 million spent on goods and services provided by Indigenous businesses in 2022 (a 30% increase over 2021); launching our Diversity, Equity and Inclusion education and awareness campaign focused on amplifying the voices of every team member to enhance our decision making, innovation, employee engagement and the Corporation's long-term success; and the continued advancement of safety management programs and systems to ensure safe, sustainable and reliable operations.

MEG, along with its Pathways Alliance ("Alliance") peers, continues to progress pre-work on the proposed foundational carbon capture and storage ("CCS") project, which will transport CO2 via pipeline from multiple oil sands facilities to be stored safely and permanently underground in the Cold Lake region of Alberta. During the third quarter of 2023, technical teams continued to advance detailed evaluations of the proposed carbon storage hub. The Alliance is working to obtain a carbon sequestration agreement from the Government of Alberta by year-end 2023 to support regulatory submissions. In addition, the Alliance continued to advance engineering work, environmental field programs to minimize the project's environmental disturbance, and consultations with Indigenous and local communities along the proposed CO2 transportation and storage network corridor. The Alliance continues to work collaboratively with both the federal and Alberta governments on the necessary policy and co-financing frameworks required to move the project forward. The federal government has proposed an investment tax credit ("ITC") for CCS projects for all sectors across Canada. Updated draft legislation was released for consultation in the third quarter of 2023. It will be important for governments to work together with industry to ensure that the ITC implementation delivers required support to enable CCS project development.

For further details on the 2023 ESG Report and on the Corporation's approach to ESG matters, please refer to the "Sustainability" section of the Corporation's website at www.megenergy.com and the most recently filed AIF on www.sedarplus.ca.

Outlook

The 2023 guidance remains unchanged. Forecast bitumen production for the second half of the year is unchanged at approximately 105,000 bbls/d, with annual production still trending towards the low end of the guidance range and non-energy operating costs and G&A expense still trending towards the high end of their respective ranges.

The Corporation has capacity to ship 100,000 bbls/d of AWB blend sales, on a pre-apportionment basis, to the USGC market via its committed FSP capacity. In addition, 20,000 bbls/d of capacity is contracted on the TMX pipeline system to Canada's West Coast. TMX is scheduled to come into service at the end of the first quarter of 2024, which will further broaden MEG's market access.

Adjusted Funds Flow Sensitivity

MEG's production is comprised entirely of crude oil and AFF is highly correlated with crude oil benchmark prices and light-heavy oil differentials. The following table provides an annual sensitivity estimate to the most significant market variables.

Conference Call

A conference call will be held to review MEG's third quarter 2023 operating and financial results at 6:30 a.m. Mountain Time (8:30 a.m. Eastern Time) on November 7, 2023. To participate, please dial the North American toll-free number 1-888-390-0546, or the international call number 1-416-764-8688.

A recording of the call will be available by 12 p.m. Mountain Time (2 p.m. Eastern Time) on the same day at www.megenergy.com/investors/presentations-events/.

ADVISORY

Basis of Presentation

MEG prepares its financial statements in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS") and presents financial results in Canadian dollars ($ or C$), which is the Corporation's functional currency.

Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures

Certain financial measures in this news release are non-GAAP financial measures or ratios, supplementary financial measures and capital management measures. These measures are not defined by IFRS and, therefore, may not be comparable to similar measures provided by other companies. These non-GAAP and other financial measures should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS.

Adjusted Funds Flow and Free Cash Flow

Adjusted funds flow and free cash flow are capital management measures and are defined in the Corporation's consolidated financial statements. Adjusted funds flow and free cash flow are presented to assist management and investors in analyzing operating performance and cash flow generating ability. Funds flow from operating activities is an IFRS measure in the Corporation's consolidated statement of cash flow. Adjusted funds flow is calculated as funds flow from operating activities excluding items not considered part of ordinary continuing operating results. By excluding non-recurring adjustments, the adjusted funds flow measure provides a meaningful metric for management and investors by establishing a clear link between the Corporation's cash flows and cash operating netback. Free cash flow is presented to assist management and investors in analyzing performance by the Corporation as a measure of financial liquidity and the capacity of the business to repay debt and return capital to shareholders. Free cash flow is calculated as adjusted funds flow less capital expenditures.

In the second quarter of 2022, an adjustment was made to the presentation of adjusted funds flow and free cash flow. In April 2020, the Corporation issued cash-settled RSUs under its long-term incentive ("LTI") plan when the share price was at a historic low of $1.57 per share. Concurrent with the issuance, the Corporation entered equity price risk management contracts to manage share price volatility in the subsequent three-year period, effectively reducing share price appreciation cash flow risk. The increase in the Corporation's share price from April 2020 to June 30, 2022 resulted in the recognition of a significant cash-settled stock-based compensation expense, which was previously included as a component of adjusted funds flow and free cash flow. The actual cash impact of the 2020 cash-settled RSUs, however, was subject to equity price risk management contracts, so the cash impact over the term of these RSUs was reduced and the change in value did not provide a valuable indication of operating performance.

Therefore, the financial statement impacts of the April 2020 cash-settled stock-based compensation and the equity price risk management contracts were excluded from adjusted funds flow and free cash flow. All prior periods presented have been adjusted to reflect this change in presentation.

The following table reconciles FFO to AFF to FCF:

Net Debt

Net debt is a capital management measure and is defined in the Corporation's consolidated financial statements. Net debt is an important measure used by management to analyze leverage and liquidity. Net debt is calculated as long-term debt plus current portion of long-term debt less cash and cash equivalents.

The following table reconciles the Corporation's current and long-term debt to net debt:

Cash Operating Netback

Cash operating netback is a non-GAAP financial measure, or ratio when expressed on a per barrel basis. Its terms are not defined by IFRS and, therefore, may not be comparable to similar measures provided by other companies. This non-GAAP financial measure should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS.

Cash operating netback is a financial measure widely used in the oil and gas industry as a supplemental measure of a company's efficiency and its ability to generate cash flow for debt repayment, capital expenditures, or other uses. The per barrel calculation of cash operating netback is based on bitumen sales volumes.

Revenues is an IFRS measure in the Corporation's consolidated statement of earnings (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) which is the most directly comparable primary financial statement measure to cash operating netback. A reconciliation from revenues to cash operating netback has been provided below:

Blend Sales and Bitumen Realization

Blend sales and bitumen realization are non-GAAP financial measures, or ratios when expressed on a per barrel basis, and are used as a measure of the Corporation's marketing strategy by isolating petroleum revenue and costs associated with its produced and purchased products and excludes royalties. Their terms are not defined by IFRS and, therefore, may not be comparable to similar measures provided by other companies. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. Blend sales per barrel is based on blend sales volumes and bitumen realization per barrel is based on bitumen sales volumes.

Revenues is an IFRS measure in the Corporation's consolidated statement of earnings (loss) and comprehensive income (loss), which is the most directly comparable primary financial statement measure to blend sales and bitumen realization. A reconciliation from revenues to blend sales and bitumen realization has been provided below:

Net Transportation and Storage Expense

Net transportation and storage expense is a non-GAAP financial measure, or ratio when expressed on a per barrel basis. Its terms are not defined by IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures provided by other companies. This non-GAAP financial measure should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. Per barrel amounts are based on bitumen sales volumes.

It is used as a measure of the Corporation's marketing strategy by focusing on maximizing the realized AWB sales price after transportation and storage expense by utilizing its network of pipeline and storage facilities to optimize market access.

Transportation and storage expense is an IFRS measure in the Corporation's consolidated statements of earnings (loss) and comprehensive income (loss).

Power and transportation revenue is an IFRS measure in the Corporation's consolidated statement of earnings (loss) and comprehensive income (loss), which is the most directly comparable primary financial statement measure to transportation revenue. A reconciliation from power and transportation revenue to transportation revenue has been provided below.

Bitumen Realization after Net Transportation and Storage Expense

Bitumen realization after net transportation and storage expense is a non-GAAP financial measure, or ratio when expressed on a per barrel basis. Its terms are not defined by IFRS and, therefore may not be comparable to similar measures provided by other companies. This non-GAAP financial measure should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. Per barrel amounts are based on bitumen sales volumes.

It is used as a measure of the Corporation's marketing strategy by focusing on maximizing the realized bitumen sales price after net transportation and storage expense by utilizing its network of pipeline and storage facilities to optimize market access.

Operating Expenses net of Power Revenue and Energy Operating Costs net of Power Revenue

Operating expenses net of power revenue and Energy operating costs net of power revenue are both non-GAAP financial measures, or ratios when expressed on a per barrel basis. Their terms are not defined by IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures provided by other companies. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. Per barrel amounts are based on bitumen sales volumes.

Operating expenses net of power revenue is used as a measure of the Corporation's cost to operate its facilities at the Christina Lake project after factoring in the benefits from selling excess power to offset energy costs.

Energy operating costs net of power revenue is used to measure the performance of the Corporation's cogeneration facilities to offset energy operating costs.

Non-energy operating costs and energy operating costs are supplementary financial measures as they represent portions of operating expenses. Non-energy operating costs comprise production-related operating activities and energy operating costs reflect the cost of natural gas used as fuel to generate steam and power. Per barrel amounts are based on bitumen sales volumes.

Operating expenses is an IFRS measure in the Corporation's consolidated statement of earnings (loss) and comprehensive income (loss). Power and transportation revenue is an IFRS measure in the Corporation's consolidated statement of earnings (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) which is the most directly comparable primary financial statement measure to power revenue. A reconciliation from power and transportation revenue to power revenue has been provided below.

Forward-Looking Information

Certain statements contained in this news release may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. These statements relate to future events or MEG's future performance. All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. The use of any of the words "anticipate", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "may", "will", "project", "should", "believe", "plan", "intend", "target", "potential" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements are often, but not always, identified by such words. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. In particular, and without limiting the foregoing, this press release contains forward looking statements with respect to: the Corporation's expectation of reaching its US$600 million debt target in mid-2024; the Corporation's expectation of returning 100% of free cash flow to shareholders and being positioned to sanction highly economic projects for modest production growth over the next few years; the Corporation's focus on short-cycle redevelopment programs, enhanced completion designs, optimized well spacing and target facility enhancements and the impact of these activities on the Corporation's steam-oil ratio; the Corporation's expectation of allocating 50% of free cash flow to share buybacks with the remaining cash flow applied to ongoing debt reduction until it reaches its net debt floor of US$600 million; all statements relating to the Corporation's 2023 guidance, including forecast second half production and non-energy operating costs and general and administration costs; the Corporation's expectation that the TMX pipeline system will come into service at the end of the first quarter of 2024; the Corporation's expectations regarding the Pathways Alliance projects and government support of these projects; and the Corporation's adjusted funds flow sensitivity estimates.

Forward-looking information contained in this press release is based on management's expectations and assumptions regarding, among other things: future crude oil, bitumen blend, natural gas, electricity, condensate and other diluent prices, differentials, the level of apportionment on the Enbridge Mainline system, foreign exchange rates and interest rates; the recoverability of MEG's reserves and contingent resources; MEG's ability to produce and market production of bitumen blend successfully to customers; future growth, results of operations and production levels; future capital and other expenditures; revenues, expenses and cash flow; operating costs; reliability; continued liquidity and runway to sustain operations through a prolonged market downturn; MEG's ability to reduce or increase production to desired levels, including without negative impacts to its assets; anticipated reductions in operating costs as a result of optimization and scalability of certain operations; anticipated sources of funding for operations and capital investments; plans for and results of drilling activity; the regulatory framework governing royalties, land use, taxes and environmental matters, including the timing and level of government production curtailment and federal and provincial climate change policies, in which MEG conducts and will conduct its business; the availability of government support to industry to assist in the achievement of net zero GHG emissions by 2050; the impact of MEG's response to the COVID-19 global pandemic; and business prospects and opportunities. By its nature, such forward-looking information involves significant known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated.

These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, risks and uncertainties related to: the oil and gas industry, for example, the securing of adequate access to markets and transportation infrastructure (including pipelines and rail) and the commitments therein; the availability of capacity on the electricity transmission grid; the uncertainty of reserve and resource estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, costs and revenues; health, safety and environmental risks, including public health crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and any related actions taken by governments and businesses; legislative and regulatory changes to, amongst other things, tax, land use, royalty and environmental laws and production curtailment; the cost of compliance with current and future environmental laws, including climate change laws; risks relating to increased activism and public opposition to fossil fuels and oil sands; the inability to access government support to industry to assist in the achievement of net zero GHG emissions by 2050; assumptions regarding and the volatility of commodity prices, interest rates and foreign exchange rates; commodity price, interest rate and foreign exchange rate swap contracts and/or derivative financial instruments that MEG may enter into from time to time to manage its risk related to such prices and rates; timing of completion, commissioning, and start-up, of MEG's turnarounds; the operational risks and delays in the development, exploration, production, and the capacities and performance associated with MEG's projects; MEG's ability to reduce or increase production to desired levels, including without negative impacts to its assets; MEG's ability to finance capital expenditures; MEG's ability to maintain sufficient liquidity to sustain operations through a prolonged market downturn; changes in credit ratings applicable to MEG or any of its securities; the severity and duration of ongoing consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic; actions taken by OPEC+ in relation to supply management; the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and associated sanctions on commodity prices; the availability and cost of labour and goods and services required in the Corporation's operations, including inflationary pressures; supply chain issues including transportation delays; the cost and availability of equipment necessary to our operations; and changes in general economic, market and business conditions.

Although MEG believes that the assumptions used in such forward-looking information are reasonable, there can be no assurance that such assumptions will be correct. Accordingly, readers are cautioned that the actual results achieved may vary from the forward-looking information provided herein and that the variations may be material. Readers are also cautioned that the foregoing list of assumptions, risks and factors is not exhaustive.

Further information regarding the assumptions and risks inherent in the making of forward-looking statements can be found in MEG's most recently filed Annual Information Form ("AIF"), along with MEG's other public disclosure documents. Copies of the AIF and MEG's other public disclosure documents are available through the Company's website at www.megenergy.com/investors and through the SEDAR+ website at www.sedarplus.ca.

The forward-looking information included in this news release is expressly qualified in its entirety by the foregoing cautionary statements. Unless otherwise stated, the forward-looking information included in this news release is made as of the date of this news release and MEG assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by law.

This news release contains future-oriented financial information and financial outlook information (collectively, "FOFI") about MEG's prospective results of operations including, without limitation, the Corporation's capital expenditures, production, non-energy operating costs, general and administrative costs and transportation costs, all of which are subject to the same assumptions, risk factors, limitations, and qualifications as set forth above. Readers are cautioned that the assumptions used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on FOFI. MEG's actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these FOFI, or if any of them do so, what benefits MEG will derive therefrom. MEG has included the FOFI in order to provide readers with a more complete perspective on MEG's future operations and such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. MEG disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any FOFI statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

About MEG

MEG is an energy company focused on sustainable in situ thermal oil production in the southern Athabasca oil region of Alberta, Canada. MEG is actively developing innovative enhanced oil recovery projects that utilize steam-assisted gravity drainage extraction methods to improve the responsible economic recovery of oil as well as lower carbon emissions. MEG transports and sells thermal oil (AWB) to customers throughout North America and internationally. MEG is a member of the Pathways Alliance, a group of Canada's largest oil sands producers working together to address climate change and achieve the goal of net zero emissions¹ by 2050. MEG's common shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol "MEG" (TSX: MEG).

Learn more at: www.megenergy.com

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Investor Relations
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SOURCE MEG Energy Corp.